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Year-End Special Part 1: Reviewing 2025 + 2026 AI & EdTech Predictions from Reach Capital, HMH, Brisk & More!

• Alex Sarlin and Ben Kornell • Season 10

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2025 was a defining year for AI in education. From rapid adoption to rising educator confidence and growing questions about what comes next.

In Part 1 of our year-end reflections and predictions, Alex Sarlin and Ben Kornell revisit their 2025 reflections and look ahead to what 2026 may bring for EdTech, AI, and the future of learning.

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From educator adoption curves to Big Tech’s growing influence, this episode brings together operators, investors, and strategists to unpack what’s shaping education’s next chapter. 

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Part 1 - 2025 Reflections & 2026 Predictions - What’s Next for AI & EdTech

[00:00:00] Ben Kornell: I believe there's a big backlash coming to AI, and I think that that's a social backlash that we'll see broadly. But in education specifically, we'll see parents and teachers pushing back. So the result will be that AI goes under the hood, it's baked into the cake, it's behind the scenes, but it's less prominent as a feature and as a selling point within the education community.

So just as universities are declaring AI majors, we'll see the AI features going underground. A little bit less of student facing, a little bit more tooling on the back end. And I think there will be a human premium where people are willing to pay more or do more for human based things. And I think year of 2026 will be the year of AI backlash.

[00:00:50] Arman Jaffer: One of the interesting things in the 2024, 2025 academic year and kind of shifting until the end of the year in 25 is we really saw teachers really get their footing with respect to AI. And what that looked like is. Not just a productivity solution, but how can I actually introduce AI to my students?

And so, at least at Brisk, we offer both a teaching tool and a student facing tool called Boost. We saw a real shift from teachers that we're used to just giving feedback on student work to saying, Hey, how can I provide a writing coach to my students so that they can actually stay in productive struggle, get the support when they need to, um, whilst they engage in, for example, writing an assignment or completing some other type of work.

And I think that has been a really exciting trend to see 

[00:01:36] Andrew Goldman: Every year, HMH does this educator confidence report, and this year it's just astonishing. We're seeing six x the number of educators that are using AI compared to 2023, 3 and four educators say they understand how to use it. And nearly four and five feel confident using AI in their classroom.

So adoption and implementation, that has always been the challenge with EdTech. And in this year and, and in the last year, it's a, it's an ongoing trend. We are seeing just incredible pace of adoption by individuals you know the humans that are using this.

[00:02:26] Alex Sarlin: Welcome to EdTech Insiders, the top podcast covering the education technology industry from funding rounds to impact to AI developments across early childhood K 12 higher ed and work. You'll find it all here 

[00:02:40] Ben Kornell: at EdTech Insiders. Remember to subscribe to the pod, check out our newsletter, and also our event calendar, and to go deeper, check out EdTech Insiders Plus where you can get premium content access to our WhatsApp channel, early access to events and back channel insights from Alex and Ben.

Hope you enjoyed today's pod.

Hello EdTech insiders. This is our favorite episode of the year. Its predictions time. We'll take a look back at our 2025 predictions and a look forward at 2026. In addition to Alex and I, we're also gonna have a raft of guests who are all going to share their predictions, and we put it all together into one.

Macro episode that you can download, put into chat GBT and ask it to summarize. So here we are, Alex. Let's get started with a look back. What were your predictions that you predicted in December, 2024 and what actually happened? Let's go through them. 

[00:03:43] Alex Sarlin: Yeah, we'll just do rapid fire here. So my predictions first is that AI generated video.

Games and multimodal content would explode that we are gonna really quickly move into an era of AI images, of AI videos and AI games. And I think that's been pretty well born out. And we have seen this huge competition between OpenAI, soa, between Google Veo, multiple versions of different kind of video platforms, runway cling, all sorts of stuff happening.

So I, I think we have definitely seen that. I still think we're in early innings for that, but pretty good. I predicted that realtime translation, the media dubbing was gonna be really interesting for global learning distribution. We have seen realtime translation and media dubbing happening within Google Meet.

We've seen it within Microsoft products. We've seen the real time stuff happen. I don't yet think it's meant that we can do like tutoring in any language quite yet. It's possible, but we haven't seen it take off quite yet. So I think that's partially true, but it has been really exciting to see how much of the translation has changed things.

I had a prediction that higher ed is gonna enter a very defensive. Posture that they were gonna be forced this year to add career aligned programs, alternative credentials, more partnerships, and basically align more to the needs of students and to the workforce. And I think that one's definitely, I did not expect them to launch AI majors within the year.

And as we just talked about last week, we have many schools launching AI majors, really, really trying to move quickly to adapt to those needs. So I think that's a, for sure. We saw lots of micro-credential pathways, we saw lots of apprenticeship style degrees. We've seen schools be more innovative and more defensive, but also innovative.

In response to that need. I talked about how there was gonna be more localized and personalized curriculum creation where districts would start to create their own curriculum using AI authoring tools. That's true a little bit. We saw that in Texas. We saw that in Florida. We saw a number of large districts starting to make their own stuff.

But at the same time, I don't think it's been fully true. I, I think it hasn't taken off as a trend that I think we would've expected. And my last one is AI agents. The idea, you know, we were talking all the time last year at this time about how AI agents were about to take off, automate everything. I don't think that's quite come true yet.

I think it's one of these things, we've all been talking about agents for quite a while now. It has not come into our regular lives unless you are somebody who is really sort of cutting edge, going outta your way to build agentic. Workflows or put the pieces together. We haven't quite seen that happen.

So those are my five. How about you, Ben? What did you say? Last year? And I'd give myself like three out of five. What would you say has changed? 

[00:06:25] Ben Kornell: Yeah, I'm excited to talk about 2026 too, because some of this I think we're missing on the pace of change versus the actual idea itself. So my first one is that same category, assessment revolution.

I've been waiting for this my entire education career, the shift to formative assessment, AI informed ongoing loops, human plus peer plus AI, hybrid assessment. We saw glimpses of this. We had our ED interview. We're seeing a lot more in terms of formative, but I think this is only partially true. This is one of those cases too, where I think implementation versus innovation.

There's a lot slowness in implementation, but California and New York did begin testing AI assisted scoring pilots, and largely the teacher facing side of this. Has worked. So I'd give myself a maybe a B minus C plus on that one. On the shift. Number two, a shift from remediation to raising the ceiling due to parent pressure and ESAs, the choice movement.

I think it's accurate that the choice movement has exploded. ESAs have expanded. Parental expectations have expanded, but we haven't yet seen it penetrate the psyche of schools per se. And so I've not seen an explosion in, for example, gifted and talented programs or personalized pathways that I might have expected.

So again, a strong theme in the policy realm, but when you actually look at the implications and implementation for kids a little bit slow, I'd give that a B three. Micro entrepreneurship and AI enabled micro companies will surge solopreneur ed tech products become viable. I think this was probably my most accurate one.

There's a boom in solo or three to five person teams launching AI powered tech tools. Many of them are hitting a hundred thousand users with tiny teams. The Y Combinator winner 2025 and GSV Cup finalists included multiple micro EdTech outfits. And this feels like when we were you and I and the EdTech Insider community, we were on the front foot on that one.

So A, on that one for more m and a deals. So I predicted a lot more m and a, but not the big type of m and a. Remember, last year we had these mega deals with private equity backed and it much more about people picking up small three to 10 person teams, kind of in the vein of micro companies. There were fewer headline making mega deals and several acquihire style moves.

I still don't think that the acceleration of this has, has really hit the space. Eventually you'd wanna see people starting a company with the goal of being acquired, right? But you know, I still think that that one was accurate. And then last, blurring the lines between K 12 higher ed and workforce, generalized AI platforms, crossing sectors.

I mean, this one was probably too easy to call. Basically you have these big tech companies entering the fray. Of course they're gonna blend those lines. And then you've got Diffit, conmigo Magic School, Quizlet, all of them figuring out ways to piece together a customer journey that crosses lines. So I think that that one was maybe a slam dunk already.

I'd probably go with the same three out of five. We'll grade ourselves generously on a curve and say we're in the BB plus range. So I guess with that fair warning to listeners, 80% of what we say, you already know 10% is really, really on point and new thinking and 10% is horribly wrong. And we don't know which is which only you will be able to find out.

So Alex, what do you have on your list for, you know, your top three to five predictions? Yeah. For 

[00:10:17] Alex Sarlin: 2026? Great. Great question. So. Some of these are a little bit of continuations of what we've already been seeing, but some are bolder than others. Okay, so let's go back and forth on this. Ben. I'll do one then you do one just so we're not talking for long stretches.

So, one I am very excited about and I'm, this may be wishful thinking, but I am really excited about social or collaborative AI tools. I think we've seen a few flowers bloom in that space where it's about group work or facilitation or matchmaking or mediation. But I think that there's such potential here.

So I'm really excited. I hope that we come back. There's more hope maybe than prediction, but we'll see that we come back here next year and there's this whole blossoming of either full tools or features around getting students to work together or even getting teachers to work together. Basically getting more people into the AI space together, working at the same time, I dunno if you've tried the open AI group chat.

It is really fun. I've been doing it with friends and we've been doing escape rooms and dungeons and and trivia and is a very different experience working within an AI bot with other people, you know, versus doing it alone. And I think that's gonna catch on this year. How about you, Ben? 

[00:11:28] Ben Kornell: Okay. My first one is I believe there's a big backlash coming to AI and I think that that's a social backlash that we'll see broadly, but in education.

Specifically, we'll see parents and teachers pushing back. So the result will be that AI goes under the hood, it's baked into the cake, it's behind the scenes, but it's less prominent as a feature and as a selling point within the education community. So just as universities are declaring AI majors, we'll see the AI features going underground.

A little bit less of student facing, a little bit more tooling on the backend. And I think there will be a human premium where people are willing to pay more or do more for human based things. And I think year of 2026 will be the year of AI backlash. 

[00:12:18] Alex Sarlin: Yeah, it, it is definitely been brewing for quite a while.

My second one is sort of an extension of one you made last year that I think has been really interesting to watch that as ESA dollar amounts continue to grow as parents become sort of wiser in their choices. And as more states adopt this, we're gonna see more commercialized, marketable school models.

We've talked a lot this year about alpha schools and they're now some competitors or others in that same space that are basically trying to almost like rebrand school and offer their very particular flavor of it as the way to jump forward, the way to get ahead in this very uncertain era. I think we're gonna start to see these types of schools competing on their tech stack, including of course, their ed tech tools.

And I think you're gonna have a really interesting moment where EdTech companies that are used to selling to big bureaucratic school districts may find some very nimble small schools, small school networks in the ESA space that are actually jumping in looking for the coolest, most motivating, most interesting, most parent friendly, user friendly ed tech that they can put into their brochures.

That's my prediction. How about you? 

[00:13:25] Ben Kornell: Yeah, my number two is very parallel to that and it's the rise of B2C models over B2B models. And I think that we're in a charter school movement version two here, where it's not actually charter schools, but that school innovation moment. And I think that more and more funding and more and more resourcing will go to B2C motion style businesses and education and learning where you're selling on an individual student, individual family, or small collective basis rather than the big SaaS.

You can just see that there's diminishing returns on that, and I think that investors are ready to give up on the SaaS model where it's a race to the bottom on prices. 

[00:14:13] Alex Sarlin: Yeah, that's a great one. I have a couple of higher ed ones here, so my next one is it's, this might be a little bit of a gimme, I'm not sure, but I think we're gonna see a very rapid adoption this year of universities basically buying the Big Frontier Lab LLMs for their entire campuses.

I think, you know, we've seen OpenAI, we've seen Anthropic, we've seen Google, plexity and others start to have sort of go-to-market movements with higher ed. I just saw that Dartmouth signed with Anthropic, right? Right. You, you're starting to see announcements like this, I think this year partially due to all the pressures we've seen for higher ed, trying to just make sure that it seems relevant and cutting edge, but also partially because of the growing sophistication of these companies in selling to higher ed.

You're gonna just see a, a huge shift, and it's gonna be by the end of this year, it's gonna be many, many, many universities are going to have signed deals with the Frontier Labs. How about you, Ben? 

[00:15:08] Ben Kornell: Picking up on that vein, I'm gonna go with dominance by Big Tech in learning and AI, and I think that's a trend that continues.

You know, we've always talked about Google being the largest ed tech company in the world, and it being a rounding error for them, it's no longer a rounding 

[00:15:24] Alex Sarlin: error. Yep. 

[00:15:25] Ben Kornell: There's a focus on education and learning anthropic. I would group them in with big tech. I would say we expect open AI to be doing more partnerships.

Of course, I think Google is the biggest player in this space, but also watch out for Microsoft, watch out for Amazon, watch out for Meta. What are these players going to do when learning is a key use case? Each of them may have different strategies, embedding in schools, embedding in B2C models, career-based early childhood.

There's lots of angles that these folks will take. But if you're navigating that as an ed tech entrepreneur, you're gonna have to anticipate those moves so that you don't get disintermediated outcompeted, or you know, ultimately have the market reset by these big tech players and their. Huge ambitions.

[00:16:15] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. I love that take and I love that sort of, uh, zoom out of, of how we were looking at it. I asked on stage at, at EdTech week for my panel whether they thought that a Frontier Lab was gonna buy an EdTech in this coming year, and nobody agreed with that. They just thought, Hey, they don't need to. They're building so fast, they're moving so quickly.

I don't think they are looking for acquisitions as the way to move into ed tech. And that was actually a pretty scary thing to see. Okay. My last two are actually probably the most controversial. I don't know. They're kind of the weirdest ones, I think. So we'll see if they actually come true. But one is, this is another higher ed one.

I think we're gonna see this really wacky thing happen this year where just as we've seen all of these AI majors start to happen, and as you mentioned last week, some of them are sort of maybe re-skinned classes or you know, they're not all coming from scratch, they're being bent towards AI. I think we're gonna start to see that in the liberal arts.

I think we're gonna start to see a lot of comprehending and rethinking about what colleges are offering, even in things as traditional as English language, as a business, as psychology, as health majors. And I think we're gonna start to see this real change in the comfort of universities starting to reframe what they're doing as not the traditional model, but like how does the past meet the future?

You're gonna see, you know, health and AI, AI enhanced business, or even if they don't use the word AI, to your point about maybe AI takes a backseat, like modern business, the future of business, business skills for the 22nd century. I don't know. Things that just feel a lot more trying to combine traditional college majors with new technology because they know that's what both parents and students are desperate for.

What was your fifth one? I just want to hear both of the controversial ones. The fifth one is about physical AI. The fifth one is about robotics and wearables. These are two things that I, I just, I don't, I am not, I haven't followed these as closely as I'd like to, but I have heard a lot of buzz that the White House is about to do a whole lot of things about the robotics.

We've heard that NVIDIA is investing in robotics, a lot of startups. I think we're gonna see the first commercially viable AI robots this year. And the idea of a robotic AI teaching assistant will emerge and it will cause a huge amount of hand wringing and stress among everybody in the space. And I also think wearables, I don't think wearables are gonna be normalized this year, but I think we're gonna start talking about people walking around with AI pins on their lapels or AI glasses and have that kind of relationship to it.

So I think this will be a big year for physical AI, is basically my prediction. 

[00:18:42] Ben Kornell: Alright. Yeah, I'm, I'm very excited for that. And of course when we get to December, 2026, we'll see how fast the pace of that is, but it does seem like that's a real trend. My last two, number four is. I think 2026 will be the year of global EdTech.

Mm. My bold prediction is that investment dollars in EdTech outside of the United States will be greater than inside the United States. Great 

[00:19:09] Alex Sarlin: prediction, 

[00:19:09] Ben Kornell: and at least one developing country will make a meaningful jump on that list. My current bet is on Brazil, but the reality is we saw a huge decline in China and in India.

In China, it was because of the government. In India, it was basically the fallout of Baiju. But now with physics, Wallace surging, I believe India will be a Goliath coming back. European ed tech has been super strong and growing really solidly, and now we've got a new technology, which is a leapfrog technology in developing countries.

So I'm very excited about that and excited to bring those stories to our listeners. And then the last is, I believe there will be a collapse of at least one major education company based in the us Higher ground education was probably the big collapse this year. Last year it was by juice. I think that trend will continue.

I don't think that there's money to save people like there was before, and I think at least one of the major players, you can define that however you want, but in the hundreds of millions of dollars, we'll go bankrupt and need to recapitalize, refinance, or get swallowed up by somebody else. So those are our top five.

We have a whole bunch of other predictions going, and there's so much more to discuss here. For you that are listening in, we want to hear your predictions, so please either join as an EdTech Insiders plus member and come to our WhatsApp group. Share your predictions there, or on the comments on this podcast or in our newsletter.

Please add your predictions. We're so excited. What a great year 2025 was and what a great year 2026 will be. Do you wanna take us out, Alex? 

[00:20:57] Alex Sarlin: Oh, no. I appreciate that, Ben. So as always, if it happens in EdTech, you'll hear about it here on EdTech Insiders. Let's go to our predictions from all our amazing experts around the field.

Hi 

[00:21:08] Ben Kornell: everybody. We have a special dual episode today. I'm Ben Kornell with EdTech Insiders.

[00:21:14] Tom Vander Ark: I'm Tom Vander Ark with Getting Smart,

[00:21:16] Ben Kornell: and we're doing a joint podcast to really talk about 2025, the year that was, and most importantly, our predictions for 2026. What's around the corner? Tom, it's so great to catch up with you.

Lots going on in the education world. Let's kick it off with our first question. Looking back at 2025. What was the most significant shift or learning in AI and education from your perspective? 

[00:21:41] Tom Vander Ark: So, Ben, I wanna go slightly off the ranch for this first one, and I, I just want to highlight the big beginning of the automation of work, the rise of agents and robots in the commercial sector, because of its important implications in education and in ed tech, I think we are just in the early innings of companies using gen AI to automate tasks and soon entire jobs.

And I think this year we saw for the first time some, uh, weakness in the professional technical markets, particularly for younger workers. I'm afraid it's gonna be worse in the spring as we, we think about 2026. The big implication of this phase of automation is that thousands of districts have begun reconsidering their learning goals.

And districts have been thinking about a portrait of graduate or learner profile, many for 20 years. The sudden changes in the nature of work have launched this reconsideration of learning goals and people are starting to take seriously. AI literacy learner agency. Creativity, critical thinking, curiosity.

And so that feels like the big takeaway from this trend of automation. How about you? What, what's a a big, yeah, I mean, well, just 

[00:23:00] Ben Kornell: to kind of double down on, on your point, one other thing that we've seen is that rote tasks are quickly being accomplished by cheat GPT, and therefore it's become more of a burning platform.

I think it's not just like future forward, what is the world going to look like, but it's also the unsustainability of the five paragraph essay as a like format in education. So, you know, every time you look at this push pull, the real question that people are grappling with is, okay, if we let go of these things, then what?

And I think the two major shifts, I would say in 2025 is one, AI and learning has become a huge focus for the large tech firms. Yes. And I think this idea that. I'm gonna launch an EdTech company that does X, Y, Z with AI is demonstrably overshadowed by Google's efforts, open AI's efforts, and Claude Anthropics efforts.

[00:24:03] Tom Vander Ark: And Ben, just even as recent as the last two weeks, like the month of November, huge commitments by the super scalers, not only to new models, but to education. So I, I, that, that's my second big category of, of what happened in 25 that's gonna impact 26. Is that a good thing or a bad thing for education?

What's your think? Well, 

[00:24:24] Ben Kornell: you know, there's a couple layers to that question. From an EdTech perspective, if you thought that Google Classroom distorted LMS values, yes. This is on a 10 to a hundred x scale of that. Right? And so what I think this. Ultimately means in the ed tech industry is that you actually have to laser focus on niche areas that are not big enough for those broader Right hyperscalers to serve and that have unique user needs that only someone really paying attention to that sector Yeah.

Can be interested in. Now that being said, that converges with a moment where micro companies are now suddenly viable, right? Where you can build a 10 person company that's $10 million, whereas before you'd need a huge software engineering team to deliver on that. Yes. So I think what we're seeing in education space that is good for teaching and learning is many of these areas that never had a big enough tam.

To address, let's say, learning Korean as a language. You can now have entrepreneurs that can build cheap enough that they can go attack that market. And you've got these large super scalers providing essentially infrastructure where the app layer can live on top, that we may actually have far better, more tailored solutions for things that you and I care about.

Like, you know, what we used to call personalized learning. It may come to fruition, it just may not look like a personalized learning curriculum company all in one. It may look like layers of the cake with the apps on top. 

[00:25:59] Tom Vander Ark: Yeah. A great example of this, Ben, is the rise of video. You know, particularly with the introduction of nano banana from Google, which is exceptionally good.

And Ben, you and Alex have done such a great job in the last six weeks of getting the word out on this. I, I think you guys, more than anyone else, really appreciate the extraordinary opportunity when it comes to learning both formal and informal of these video tools. Say more about that. 

[00:26:28] Ben Kornell: Yeah, so in November we were at Google DeepMind and they gave us a preview of.

The video and what we're seeing today is mind blowing. What we will be seeing is full length production of feature length movies that a 12, 13, 14-year-old could actually create. Right. And when you think about what that has done in the past, whenever you've taken tools of creation and put it in the hands of learners, you actually have an explosion of learning because you are like, why am I doing this?

Why does this matter? It's so immediate. 'cause your learn to create, learn to create happened. So fast literacy ultimately, and writing in the origin days was very scarce. And when you learn to write, you would just write all the time and create. We are on the precipice of a creative explosion where those tools are in the hands of people.

The reason why Alex and I are so excited about it is the enduring problem with EdTech has been engagement. And what we find is that every efficacy study shows that if kids are engaged, that 5% that Lawrence Holt talks about, you get the outcomes. But if they're not engaged, good luck. And we've seen through the social media and the rise of YouTube that these are truly engaging content mediums.

And now here it is. And every educator's hand, every student's hand. What a incredible palette to paint with 

[00:27:53] Tom Vander Ark: a related category is the bipartisan excitement we have about work-based learning. And I'm really excited about the increase in the number of internships that we're seeing. There's a a niche category now that we call client connected projects.

Companies like Ripen for the last three years have been hosting these client connected projects, mostly for higher ed students, but we're seeing these hosted client projects or community projects. Now moving into high school, Ben, I think you guys interviewed the leadership of District C, which is doing team ships.

[00:28:29] Ben Kornell: Yep. Yep. 

[00:28:29] Tom Vander Ark: Exciting concept. Similarly, naf, the Big Career Academy network is big on these team ships, so I'm excited that we're gonna see more work-based learning and that more of it is gonna be tech supported. We could probably throw career sims into this category as an exciting new example of not just video, but immersive experiences related to career education.

[00:28:54] Ben Kornell: Yeah, I mean, on the career education side, there's threads of this that have been around for forty, eighty, a hundred twenty years, right? What has always been the criticism of career pathways is the academic rigor. Is the academic rigor there is this a non-college track, and therefore we're expecting lower rigor.

And I think so much of what I think about is like how does assessment drive what schools do? The ability now to create a portfolio of work and actually assess it for rigor, assess it for competencies and skills, AI as a technology is creating breakthroughs in that category. But also I think we've come to a place where, from a change management standpoint, people understand that an individual i-Ready test score or SAT score isn't enough to tell the full story of a student.

And so these richer experiential pathways have gained steam. And then add onto that the pressure that colleges and universities are facing to actually train people with real skills. Now you have your push pull in your system is not to get X, Y, Z on your transcript. It's to have real meaningful experiences in your portfolio to get into college.

The elements of the system have to align. And I think 2025 has been a year of alignment. We're talking a little bit about what's gonna continue into 2026, whether it's naturally gonna happen or whether it's intentional. We, we've gotta double down on that because of what you said about the automation coming and the joblessness that would ensue.

If we don't think about these experiences much, much early. 

[00:30:33] Tom Vander Ark: I super appreciate that. I want to connect that to the rise of entrepreneurship, another idea and education that's been around the edges for decades, but a lot of people are beginning to take that seriously, that every student's an entrepreneur in the future and has this enormous opportunity to create value, not just do preparation, but step into value creation while they're in high school.

And I think we're gonna see more and more schools take that seriously. Speaking of which we saw the beginning in 2025 of AI forward schools, like new school models that are AI forward, you've interviewed some of them. Is is that gonna grow next year? We're gonna see that expand, 

[00:31:11] Ben Kornell: uh, as a trend. I think it will definitely expand.

We also just reported this last week that college majors, AI majors with the word AI, are growing at like 40 to 50% in the course catalog for fall of 2026. You know, Alex and I talked a little bit about, is this lipstick on a pig? Is this just window dressing to kind of reframe computer science degrees into a place where it's more appealing to kids?

What I worry about is from a job market standpoint. AI or not AI will soon become irrelevant. It's like internet or not internet. Yeah. When we had internet companies in the nineties, it's like, that's an internet or a.com company, and that one's not. It starts to all merge and they just become companies.

And I worry that when we have somebody who's doing an AI degree, might they be better served doing data and statistics, might they be better specializing in actually, if that's a field they're interested in, is the tooling same thing with the AI schools and those thematic focuses, and then the second group is the alpha school, right?

Where the AI is doing the teaching. Are you 

[00:32:20] Tom Vander Ark: rules on, uh, bull and alpha? 

[00:32:21] Ben Kornell: Yeah. So, well, I have a nuance take. I mean, I, I feel like they've done the meteoric, their hero's journey in EdTech is inverse. We build you up and then we tear you down. Right. But I think that if you look at the current rules and structures of the system where test scores tell all they've optimized, they've basically said, go to the learning gym.

Go do your workout with the AI. Yeah. Get your higher score, pass the test, move on. Right. And by the way, in the afternoon we're gonna do all the creative stuff that school should be doing. And we're, they're basically a no excuses school in the morning and a progressive school in the afternoon. And they're like, that's how we're gonna reconcile that.

Now as somebody who believes that the test score bars have led us astray from what really creates competent, relevant student learning for the future, right? I feel like they're optimizing on the wrong thing, and I do think that they'll outperform a 1990s KIPP school. But when you talk to the KIPP leadership today, they realize, I've gotta think about internships and career pathways and all of those things.

And I know Joe well, and I know that team. You know, we've had McKinsey on the pod. I also think that they're opening themselves up to a lot of criticism by saying we've got it all figured out. And so sometimes it's encouraging to have somebody who's willing to be bold and unapologetic saying, we've gotta redesign schools.

So my prediction on that is Alpha Schools will have a somewhat linear trajectory bankrolled by their wealthy founder, but that they will spur innovation in adjacent school redesign models that will be far more impactful and give those people cover to say, we're not exactly like Alpha Alpha School, but we're using some of these tools.

[00:34:02] Tom Vander Ark: Let me pile on, I think your predictions already coming true with Flourish Schools. John Danner's startup in Nashville feels to me like a really thoughtful version of they, I think they're building on the initial concepts that McKinsey put forward and they're using apps that Danner has proven successful in the last three years and reading, writing in mathematics.

They're building a really thoughtful project-based engagement platform. Fourth component, they have borrowed the compass from Valor Prep. Yeah. Which is a super thoughtful social emotional learning framework, and they're building that in. And so it just feels like a very thoughtful approach by a proven entrepreneur.

So I'm, I'm bullish on, 

[00:34:50] Ben Kornell: I'm bulling them too. One, to add on that, Tom, they've also innovated on business model. So micro school business model has fundamentally suffered from a couple dilemmas. One dilemma is the value of that last chair. And when you only have 50 slots, that 50th slot is a hundred percent of your profit.

And so people end up accepting or admitting people on that cusp because they have to to survive. Rather than that, that program is a fit. So John really wanted to redesign the cost structure. So the second is we have more commercial real estate available now than in the history of humankind. Right, because post COVID people didn't return.

Right. So what was the challenge? In charter? It was all real estate, but those schools are too big to fit in commercial. So he's figured out a commercial model. I think the third thing is that these networks had diminishing returns at scale. So as you opened your 10th, 20th, 30th, it actually decayed the value to the original school, and therefore the original parents, the original value proposition was reduced over time.

And then you basically have quality control decrease as you grow. What they've really created is not just the academic package, but the operational package that allows that, almost like a single administrator entrepreneur, to run it as a node, as a network, but to have basically, you could open a thousand additional locations, it's never gonna take away from the resourcing from the initial school.

So I think as much as we talk about learning models, when someone creates a breakthrough on the business model and marries that together, that's when I get really excited about the trajectory. And that's where alpha, frankly, at 40 K, uh, you know, tuition, right? They're just not in that conversation because it's so clear.

They're going to either have to subsidize it or they're gonna have to have wealth as a selection criteria that then increases their performance outcomes. 

[00:36:53] Tom Vander Ark: Do you have a big prediction or two for Uh, 26? 

[00:36:56] Ben Kornell: Yeah. So our second question is what is one bold prediction you have for how AI will change teaching or learning in 2026?

Okay. This is ripe for cheating. I'll go with one and then I can give you a couple other ones. I'm curious to hear what yours is. I believe we are going to have an AI backlash. Yeah. In 2026 and at least five major school districts in the United States will ban AI for student facing uses in their classrooms in 2026.

I got to meet Tony Blair and he was talking about labor unions in the UK and their evolving thinking about AI. It really made a strong impression on, you know, their, a little bit less tech optimist in uk and a little bit more like every new tech job knowledge has led to job loss in the uk. Yeah, and I can honestly say the number of data points that create political wins that would want you to shut down AI for kids.

There's just too many data points that I, I feel like we're gonna see the pendulum swing. All the screen time stuff is covertly also going against AI. So New York Times had, I don't know, maybe six articles in a series of three weeks about screen time. And so I think we're in the year of the backlash for K 12.

[00:38:17] Tom Vander Ark: Yeah, that, that was third on my list. I agree. And, and just to pile on to that one, I think the midterms are going to be characterized by a lot of, uh, DOR rhetoric and proposing a lot of bad state legislation. And it's gonna be compounded by, as you suggested, some reactive policies at some of our larger school districts.

So that's a big area of concern. My big prediction is probably not such a big prediction, but I am on Team Voice for 26. I think voice is really gonna emerge as a primary UI and that glasses are gonna become an important wearable this year, at least in the consumer market. I, I think you'll see expanding application in some service verticals in in workforce training.

This all might be justification for me buying myself a pair of RayBan meta glasses for Christmas and wearing around the last few days. But I have been slow to adopt voice as my primary ui, but I think it's getting so good now and there are so many good wearable devices that work well with voice as a ui that I think 26 is gonna be the year when it goes big time and becomes not just a fringe, but a really a, a mainstream ui.

[00:39:40] Ben Kornell: Yeah. And I agree that that's likely to happen, but I wonder about the education. When we talk about learning. I definitely think that it will impact learning. When you talk about education that infers like the systems and the institutions? Yeah, probably less so in formal ed. Yeah. Well, and one of my favorite things to do is go to the pockets where innovation really happens in schools.

Special ed departments can either be the backwater or they could be your most innovative department. Right. I think voice is a game changer for special education, special ed access. And the other area I go is like music departments. They always do competencies. Like if you want to see who actually is your best person in the building at providing feedback on competencies, it's your arts teachers and the ability for art teachers to take photos and provide feedback and leverage AI.

But now to listen to what the kids are playing in rehearsal and give them feedback, there's a way in which those are the knowledge sources. Those are the nodes we need to tap. Unfortunately, in the hierarchy of the school, those generally are the teachers at the lowest end of the hierarchy. Right. But I would love to see people flipping it.

'cause that's actually where the innovation's gonna come from. 

[00:40:59] Tom Vander Ark: I love that application. That's a great example. I mentioned Career sims earlier as a sort of an application of video and video production. I do think in mainstream education, particularly high school, college and workforce training, that career sims are gonna become an important of every pathway and will become part of the background assessment, the real time feedback that's provided as part of these experiences.

So I, I think companies like School Joy that have been hard at work behind the scenes for a couple years are gonna have a breakout moment in 26 as people appreciate that. We talked earlier about the importance of work-based learning. As people appreciate the benefit of Career sims as part of a work-based learning progression, I, I think they'll have their moment in 26.

[00:41:48] Ben Kornell: Yeah, and that was actually one thing I wanted to talk about. If there's one thing educators, companies or policy makers should prepare for in 2026, what would it be? I'm very excited about teacher training. When I was coming to the classroom, I came in, no Child Left Behind, and I was trained on drill and kill to focus on cusp far below basic and below basic students.

And we have wrought a generation of that kind of teacher training. Simulations are the best way to train teachers for the ups and downs of a classroom. Also, new teachers that natively use AI and can understand how to leverage it for dynamic assessment, for engagement, all of that will breathe new life into education.

And last but not least, teaching is one of the least likely roles to be displaced by AI, right? So we're gonna have a bunch of professionals coming onto the market where this is actually going to be an increasingly attractive job. So if I were to talk to policy makers especially, but also educators and companies, a lot of the ed tech people I talk to, they're trying to sell AI tools into a very saturated market with these big players.

But if they could change teacher onboarding, professional development, retention supports, they could create game changing impact. And there's lots of budget there. There's four to $6,000 per teacher of budget, whereas you're talking about ed tech tools, five to $8 per student. It is both a market opportunity and an impact opportunity.

That's my advice for 2026. What's your advice for 2026? 

[00:43:30] Tom Vander Ark: I love that Ben. Big shout out to Aaron Mode and the Pathways Alliance that really over the last two years has. Unlock Department of Labor dollars for teacher apprenticeships. And you know, now almost 40 states are on the bus offering teacher apprenticeships.

And so what you just described is a way that we can supercharge teacher training starting while kids are in high school. We're thinking about education as a pathway. Alright. My big recommendation for something that ED leaders can do in 26 is not just adopt AI literacy as a goal, but adopt AI capability as a goal.

We learned this from our new friends at O Ohio University, which is where Paul Athens, Ohio. Hmm. Paul Reer is an alumni and he talks about Ohio fondly. On his weekly AI podcast, we called him up and found out that they have a super thoughtful approach to incorporating AI into business education at undergrad and graduate level.

The shift that they've made is not just accepting kids know about. AI, but by AI capability they mean demonstrated value creation using smart tools. So there's a commitment to not just teaching learners about AI, but engaging them in real projects connected to real businesses and requiring demonstrated value creation.

So I, I like that idea of AI capability, like doing a project that you can put on your resume to show that you're work ready. So I really like that Car Mellon 

[00:45:06] Ben Kornell: has a great program like that, the metals program that they do and it's team-based. I think when we say AI literacy, I think that we mean a couple different things.

Yes, and I agree with you. What I worry about is that we're talking about AI literacy in the same way that we talked about social media awareness of bullying and harassment and kind of the common sense media flavor of how do you recognize what a fake is, how do you understand, evaluate critically the information or text you're getting.

The unlock with AI is that it breaks barriers of creation and that it allows people with relatively limited technical expertise to actually go super far in the technical creation process. And that's what I think you're hitting on. The third vector here though, which I think will be essential for humankind, is ultimately managing one's own data.

And coming up with your own data plan where you know, essentially the skills at art of problem solving, we have a progression where at the end you build your own LLM and you infuse it with your own data, which then allows you to have a protected, portable you that you can plug into any of the models and kind of get the personalized resources that you need without exposing all your data.

Those are the functions that we need. A critical eye and ability to interpret inbound AI, uh, generated tools. Second, the ability to build with it, and third, the ability to control and leverage your data from maximum value. And that, I think, is what colleges and universities can do. But there's individual innovators at middle schools who are doing that stuff now, and that's what's I think, particularly exciting about this moment.

[00:46:52] Tom Vander Ark: Hey, that is a great list of trends and predictions and notes on preparation. I wanna wrap up just by saying thanks for your leadership in 2025. Ben, you and Alex have just done such great work at at Tech Insiders. It's just a fantastic new resource for the sector and a lot of us just super appreciate your weekly contributions.

[00:47:15] Ben Kornell: Thanks so much Tom, and we follow in some great footsteps. You've really set the bar with getting smart. I loved all your predictions. I'm excited to put more predictions on EdTech Insiders. I'd also love to hear predictions from the audience. So you're gonna post this in the Getting Smart Channel. We'll post this with EdTech Insiders.

But for all of you out there listening, we want to hear, looking back at 2025, what was the most significant shift of learning in AI in education? From your perspective, what's one bold prediction you have for 2026, and what's advice that you would give for educators, companies, or policy makers? So thanks so much for this time, Tom.

Thank you, Ben. We'll do it again in the new year down here in San Diego. Love it. See you there. All right. Talk to you soon. 

[00:48:00] Alex Sarlin: We are here with Bjorn Billhardt. He's the CEO of Abilitie, a leadership development company leader and co-author of the 12 week MBA Abilitie has educated over a hundred thousand learners globally, including leaders at Fortune 500 companies.

Prior to founding Abilitie, Bjorn was CEO of Inspire Learning. He holds an MBA from Harvard and serves on several boards, and he lives in Austin, Texas with his family. Bjorn Billhardt, welcome to Ed Tech Insiders. 

[00:48:28] Bjorn Billhardt: Thanks for having me, Alex. 

[00:48:29] Alex Sarlin: So we are here in our predictions episode. So the big question is, we're gonna look back at 2025 and then look forward at 2026 and do some speculation.

Let's start with looking back, you know, looking back at 2025, what was the most significant shift or learning in AI and education from your perspective? 

[00:48:48] Bjorn Billhardt: Yeah, I mean every year is like a warp year in, in AI terms. And I do think this is the same that happened as with the internet boom, but like on steroids, right?

So we're, we're in like a time warp year where every two months something completely radically changes. So it's really hard to actually pinpoint the two months inside of 2025 that were most significant. 'cause every two months, like a new model came out, like, uh, you know, something else just radically changed, right?

But I think actually it's probably less what happened in 2025. That's important as like, we're in the beginning of another incredible transformation. And this is exactly what happened, right in 19 97, 98, when you first saw what the internet was possible of. But no one was prepared yet. And I think we're all getting ready.

So I think 2025 was like the year that everyone was getting ready, or at least significant number of people who understand the implications of AI is gonna take this world. We're getting ready. And even though our lives have not yet changed dramatically today, the groundwork for those changes are being laid.

And in 2026, I think we're gonna see a lot of those things come to fruition. Right? I took my first Robo Taxii ride here in Austin with, with Tesla. I had my first call with our plumber at home where I scheduled the entire call, described the problem, I got everything set up, gave him my credit card.

Everything was done with an AI assistant. I did not talk to a person. Right? So we're just seeing the beginnings of the sea change, but we're sort of at that liftoff point, if you will, where the next two years, everything is going to radically change. So, sorry, that's not like a concrete answer. I think for the learning function, I think similar to the broader picture, I think everyone in learning has been starting to get ready.

[00:50:46] Alex Sarlin: Mm-hmm. Educating 

[00:50:47] Bjorn Billhardt: themselves what's possible, but we are still seeing people do the exact same thing today, even December 25, as we did in January 25. I don't think that's gonna be the case in December 26. So the biggest change I think that has occurred is that we're realizing how fast it is to create content.

[00:51:08] Alex Sarlin: Yep. 

[00:51:09] Bjorn Billhardt: So content generation becomes a non-issue anymore. Constraints are being removed in terms of what can and what timeframe. And so we're just now trying to figure out what the implications of that are. But I probably the biggest change in 25 was that AI generated content became mainstream. Yeah. 2026 will be the year where, where we'll figure out what that means for the rest of the world.

[00:51:34] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. So I hear a sort of a consistent theme of the groundwork has been laid for the last three years, but especially in the last year with all the new models, the rapid acceleration of quality, more content being generated, the quality of the content being almost indistinguishable from human in many cases, and then coming into the next year, we're going to actually see those transformations truly happen in our daily life.

So what is one bold prediction that you have about how AI is going to change the teaching and learning, or in your case, right, the learning and learning development space in 2026, what's a moonshot prediction that you would think we might look out for next year? 

[00:52:13] Bjorn Billhardt: The most dangerous types of prediction.

Yep. So, and I go back to the internet and what everyone thought it would do, and then what it actually did. 

[00:52:21] Alex Sarlin: Yep. 

[00:52:22] Bjorn Billhardt: Everyone thought the internet would just revolutionize learning by allowing everyone to just go online and take an e-learning course, and that would be the future of learning. Now in 2025, we're all still sitting in classrooms.

We all still have lots and lots of zoom calls. So clearly we're not all learning just by going through an e-learning course. Right. As was predicted in 1999. I think AI is in a very, very similar position right now where the technology's in a, it's a very similar, it's a very analogous technology. A lot of people are right now predicting that, well, you don't need the classroom anymore.

You don't need a teacher. You could just ask AI anything. And so there's a lot of AI coaches coming out that are trying to basically replace learning at large with, Hey, you couldn't just ask the AI coach. And in some degree that AI will change education massively, just like the internet did. But in other ways, I think what we'll find is that an AI coach is not gonna be able to replace that personal interaction with a human.

It matters that it's a human could look and sound like a human on AI, but it actually matters that it's a human on the other side for the learner, for the motivation. And so, prediction for 26 is that rather than AI taking over every classroom and replacing every teacher, is that we will find ways to incorporate AI into the classroom.

Mm-hmm. And make it a tool that allows us to learn better inside the classroom, whether it's in classroom or virtual, but it will be a tool for teachers more so than a replacement for teachers. In the same way that e-learning is a tool for education, not a replacement for the educational experience. 

[00:54:09] Alex Sarlin: Hmm.

Yeah, that's very interesting. Yeah, I, I, I, I can see that happening and I, we are seeing some startups and some products coming out that are trying to be sort of embedded in the classroom in various ways, which I think is a really exciting space for exactly this reason. Motivation is important. Very, very important in learning.

And we are usually much more motivated by other people than by access to a device, access to even the best AI chat bot. So I think the motivation piece feels key there. And if there's one thing, here's our last question, right? If there's one thing that educators or companies or policy makers should prepare for in 2026, what would it be?

[00:54:50] Bjorn Billhardt: So, there are two answers that I have, and you could pick which one, which one you like. So on the corporate Learning for Learning and development departments that are wondering how AI is gonna shape their future, I think AI is one of the most exciting things that has happened to l and d in the time that I've been in the industry, which is 25 years now.

[00:55:11] Alex Sarlin: Yeah, 

[00:55:11] Bjorn Billhardt: it will put L and d. This is my prediction, this is my bold prediction. It'll put l and d front and center of company strategy. 

[00:55:19] Alex Sarlin: Mm. And 

[00:55:19] Bjorn Billhardt: the reason is that for 25 years, ever since I entered the industry, we've been talking about performance support and just in time learning, and it just never really got there.

I do think with AI, we will get there and that will transform the idea of how we educate. And it will completely and radically change this idea that you need education for all of the knowledge transfer that you may need on the job. It will put actual performance support, actual just in time learning, actually, you know, make it work in the in the workplace.

And what that will do is I think it will transform learning and development to focus on the things that you cannot teach with AI. The things that are not just knowledge transfer, which are critical thinking skills, analysis skills, those types of things where you actually need practice as a human to make judgements.

That will be the focus for learning and development in the formal sense. But I think because learning and development will now be a lot more integrated into the workflow and work stream where performance support and low job is actually gonna be possible. I believe l and D will have a much more outsized role in the corporate landscape than it had in the past.

That's really exciting if you're a learning and development leader. 

[00:56:43] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. 

[00:56:43] Bjorn Billhardt: That's why bold prediction number one is that l and D will become a critical function of a business more so than it has in the past. 

[00:56:51] Alex Sarlin: Mm-hmm. 

[00:56:52] Bjorn Billhardt: Prediction number two is more around the higher education side, uh, which is not necessarily my field, but I do think as people reevaluate where the jobs of the future are, if there are even any jobs left, I think people will also evaluate whether a hundred thousand dollars degree to get a stamp of approval for, you know, a certain category is what they're gonna need in their future.

So universities are already struggling with their business model and I think my bold prediction for 2026 is that's gonna come to a head and we're gonna see some pretty radical changes in terms of how universities can and should make money, and the types of services that they offer to individuals who are looking to better themselves and level up in their career.

Mm-hmm. I think there're gonna be some radical changes. It's been predicted for many years now, but I think AI is gonna accelerate that trend. 

[00:57:52] Alex Sarlin: Yeah, when I hear your predictions, it, it makes me think about the sort of distance between the learning world and the application world, or learning world and the career world.

And when you're talking about l and d learning in the flow of work, the just in time learning, we've always wanted that, but it's been hard to execute. AI sort of helps bridge that gap, right? It allows you to say, I'm working on this, I need help with it right now. And you can have an intelligence actually say, okay, well we have content on that.

I can make you new content on that. I can make you a video on the fly. I can actually take over your computer and show you how it's done. There's just all of these different ways we've never had before. And then I think how you're thinking about higher education is relevant to that too. This idea of needing this preparation period before you can sort of enter the work world sort of is predicated on the idea that we know what is needed to enter the work world.

And that's always been a little iffy proposition for higher ed, but now it really feels like it's sort of fallen apart. It is very, very, very unclear what we're gonna need to know to enter the work world in the next few years. And, and I think people are gonna, yeah, really question the, the value of, of traditional educational institutions and they're gonna have to really adapt much more quickly than they're used to.

Yeah, we're starting to see some of that adaptation, but not as much as I think is 

[00:59:03] Bjorn Billhardt: needed. And I think next year that trend is going to dramatically accelerate because people will also realize that the professors at these universities, they don't know either, right? Like and so are you really willing to spend a hundred thousand dollars on a degree when you're being taught something where you know and everyone else knows that who's teaching you is also doesn't know where the future is and what skill sets are required in an AI centric future.

And so for many people, I think that will put a pause to the idea of investing more than in their car or sometimes in their house in a certificate or you know, a piece of paper that you know, will ultimately may not get them that far. And so I think that transformation of higher education, 2000, my guess is will be a year where we'll see a lot of changes.

[00:59:53] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. A landmark year for educational transformation, especially with regards to the relationship to the working world and preparation for the workforce of the future, which is this very mysterious proposition that I don't think anybody has their head around. Yeah, there's great points all around.

Thank you for your predictions and we will revisit next year and see if they came true. I think those are pretty solid ones. Bjorn Billhardt is the CEO of Abilitie. It's a leadership development company. He's also the co-author of the 12 week MBA. Thanks so much for being here with us on our EdTech Insiders predictions episode.

[01:00:25] Bjorn Billhardt: Always a pleasure to talk with you Alex. Thanks so much for having me. 

[01:00:29] Alex Sarlin: We are here with a very special predictor today. For 17 years, Jacob Kantor has been that sales guy, the one who finishes at the top of the leaderboard. Every single time. Jacob cut his teeth in some of the biggest and most complex education environments in the country in L-A-U-S-D, McGraw Hill, C2 Education, Revolution Prep, Collegewise, Spark Education, Varsity Tutors.

And then two years ago, he flipped the script and launched JK, that's Jacob Kantor also. Just kidding. But Jacob Kantor K12 EDU. That's JK K12 EDU, where he officially became the chief Dodo, Dodo standing for district office door opener. And since then, he's gone all in helping mission-driven EdTech companies, break into districts, build real relationships and close meaningful partnerships.

No fluff, no shortcuts, just trust, access, and follow through. He's also become a LinkedIn star and a podcaster. So thank you for being here. Jacob Kantor, welcome to EdTech Insiders. 

[01:01:27] Jacob Kantor: First off, thanks for having me. Always a treat to be on anything ed tech insiders related. And a quick plug to three years ago when you started the Ed Tech Insiders podcast, when we were all in the OnDeck ed tech program as you guys had this idea, and I was like, I don't know Ben or Alex, but I would like to know them.

So it was fun then talking about the joys of, or I don't know if joys is the right word, but all things tutoring and esser dollars and districts purchasing and all that fun stuff. So you've come a long way in episodes and you know, from the biggest names to presidential candidates to the biggest names in EdTech.

So cool to be with you here and see the journey. Take fight for sure. 

[01:02:11] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. Well you were the, one of the very, very first guests on our week in EdTech where you were adversity tutors. There was all sorts of stuff happening in the tutoring space and you came on to talk about it. And I think we've had a great run together ever since.

And you've done amazing things, many amazing things in that time as well. So, Jacob, looking back at last year, 2025, what do you think was the most significant shift or change in the AI space or the education space broadly, from your particular perspective at JK and uh, as the chief dodo? 

[01:02:43] Jacob Kantor: You know, it's interesting 'cause I feel like for three years now, because that's how old chat GT is we've been talking about.

Students using AI. We've been talking about teachers implementing, we've been talking about districts and you know, a lot of this chatter goes on, you know, plugged to you guys and the Ed Tech Insiders WhatsApp group, right? So if you're not in there, what are you doing? Do you even work in ed tech? 'cause there's, uh, some of the, some of the coolest names in there, really chatting day in and day out.

And even as I'm looking at the list of folks that you're interviewing for this series, right, a lot of those folks live in that as well. So it's interesting to see what kind of conversations are happening this year around usage, around which models, around who's rolling out what to districts, to companies being thoughtful partners, rolling things out very quickly and not being thoughtful.

Some of the recent chatter on all things character AI and you know, some of the unfortunate things that are going on with kids and you know, some of the tragedy that's happened. That's, you know, breaks everyone's heart, you know, if you're a parent or not. Like that. All that stuff is terrible. You know what's interesting is I feel like Google's finally woke up.

I don't know, as I was reflecting on some of your questions and prepping for this, I was like, oh, you know, last week I think some of the chatter was, you know, Google is finally using everything at their disposal to really say, Hey, we're here. And I think we saw some of this, right? I think during Isti, which randomly enough, I was at Lego land with my family on a family vacation having fomo.

And I still remember, you know, one of the mornings getting an email from Google saying, Hey, you're allowed to talk about all this stuff now. So I like quickly went into my weird LinkedIn self, made an image on chat GPT, and copied their announcement and posted it. And that thing went like 200,000 views in the span of a couple weeks.

So, and I've never had anything go that parabolic. So I don't know if it was me, if it was the image, who knows. But that was interesting because, you know, at that pivotal moment it was. Hey, Google just released a ton of different features for free to potentially a hun or not potentially in fact, to 150 million users that are currently Google accounts, right?

So that was a real game changer around isti. And you know, of course there was some blow back and like there's bow back always with anything, right? So there was, Hey, why did you choose to do this over the summer? Right? Is there ever a perfect time to do anything right? So there will always be a, a naysayer every time there's somebody saying good job too.

So it feels like Google is coming, correct. But with that also, you know, a couple weeks ago the Open AI team released the district side of the house. I know the first cohort just got announced a couple weeks ago. I saw some friendlies on there from Mike Capistrano Valley schools. Also saw Patrick from Wynwood.

Of course, he's on there, one of the most techy folks across the country. I'm also lobbying for him to be Department of Ed person. So when he listens to this like, you know, future department of Ed, uh, head Patrick. So those are kind of the things that stand out for 2025 beyond the weird landscape of funding and the new, you know, the administration and what's going on there.

But I think people are being a lot more intentional on what does this do? What does this solve? How expensive is this? How do we implement this? Like all of those questions where I think that even though those questions were present during COVID. It just was a secondary thought. It was just not uh, and, and not the first thing that came to mind because money was flush.

[01:06:26] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. And as you look to next year, what are some predictions you have and specifically, what are some bold predictions you have about what's gonna happen in 2026 in this space? 

[01:06:38] Jacob Kantor: Yeah, so good question. As I reflected on this, you know, I went back through a couple of weeks of meetings I've had with EdTech vendors that are looking to work with districts, but also with districts evaluating tools and you know, I'll get the random text message from a district leader being like, who do you know that does this?

I'm looking for somebody to solve this. And sometimes it's easy. Sometimes I'm like, oh yeah, I know like five companies. Let me do some narrowing down on costs and get you a list. Or sometimes I'm having to ask somebody else who they know. But it's interesting over the last. Probably a month or two how popular some of the products that have conversational AI in it versus the, Hey, I'm typing into a chat bot and I'm getting a response.

Which is interesting to me because, I mean, do we use, you know, conversational AI in the home? We do, you know, I have a six year old's very inquisitive, and at 7:00 PM when it's bedtime, my patience has left my body, uh, to answer all of the questions, right? So we use it in that way. But it's interesting to use for use case with a student or even a teacher where they can just kind of talk to AI and get the desired outcome and then that saves the mental bandwidth of like typing something, making sure grammar's correct, making sure they prompted it well.

So I think that will be, you know, more and more of a thing. And you know, I've heard Christian Jackson talking about this recently and some of his keynotes too. Uh, and one of his simple hacks was just like, Hey, if you're not actively talking to your AI, you're missing out because there's a world of new opportunities versus just always having to type in whatever your inquiry is.

So even I have to do better on that side of the house. So that's one prediction. And then the second is kind of all around open AI versus Google. And for the last couple of years, they weren't really players. I mean, they're always players, right? But like not really going after the K 12 space. So. Less of a prediction and more of like a question for me for 2026 is what happens to magic school?

What happens to Brisk? What happens to dfi? What happens to Kira? Some of them I know intimately, I've worked with 'em for larger projects. Some of 'em I know just because the founders run an ed tech community and I'm rooting for everybody, right? I tell everybody the same thing always is like, if you're looking to make an impact and work with students or work with districts, I'm rooting for you.

Let's go help as many students as possible. But I do wonder with Google having all of those tools with OpenAI giving teachers access, does the dynamic of all of those sales calls that those sales teams are on, like that changes now, right? You're talking about a per teacher fee, a per student fee, and now Google and OpenAI have this for free.

Like we can say one tool is better at something, but like free versus cost. In today's market, it's hard for me to imagine that like a costly tool will win the day, but I mean, I've been proven wrong before and what do I know? Prediction, predict. 

[01:09:58] Alex Sarlin: Yeah, and I, I think it puts a lot of pressure on those companies to really keep their specific tailored solutions moving really quickly to try to, I mean, it's hard to outpace a Google or an open AI, but in terms of knowing educators, knowing the education use cases, I think Brit Magic School both have a little bit, at least of a head start, and it really puts the pressure on them to keep pushing it because they have to prove their value.

I, I, it's a really interesting observation. And if there's one thing educators, companies or policymakers should prepare for in 2026, what would it be? 

[01:10:30] Jacob Kantor: I'd say more turbulence. You know, I hate to be the downer in some of these conversations I'm having, but every month has been a unique new use case for how do we solve for this over the summer?

I feel like it was the $6 billion being frozen and folks having to deal with the reality of maybe money is not coming in the system. I was chatting with somebody recently and they said they're kind of making a plan where if title dollars just miraculously go away altogether. And I was like, you're thinking about this even further out than I am.

So just kind of this turbulent c and like every month has proven to be a little bit crazier than the previous month. And with that, right, like with uncertainty, with turbulent waters, most of the companies I'm working with, and even the ones I don't work with that I talk to regularly, I just harp on them over and over again is.

The relationships you can build in education, right? I always go back to like the farming example, right? Like if there's districts that love your tool, but they can't find the money for it, how can you plant seeds now and plant a lot of seeds now where this might not be the time that you're eating the fruits of your labor, but you are planting these seeds, you're watering them, and eventually you're going to get to a stage where we're on the other side of this and money unlocks, or some of this AI money comes into play and then they're gonna be ready.

And they are like, people remember folks that do right by them, right? Right. Yeah. They remember the partners that were there for them when they were spending no money and really being great thought partners and builders as opposed to just there when, when money miraculously showed up. So I think relationship's over everything.

And it also kind of speaks to, I don't know. It's funny, you and I, we text all the time. I somehow became popular in 2025, but there's some conferences coming up like FETC and South by Southwest and Capital and Q and GSV, and a lot of the session proposals I proposed with a couple of, you know, other folks that we know as well.

A lot of them were around procurement and buying tools based on evidence and efficacy. And that topic is resonating, like that topic has got accepted into all of these conferences. So it could also be that I added great speakers as my co-panelists, which I'm sure that is it too, but that seems to be resonating over and over again for sure.

[01:13:04] Alex Sarlin: Yeah, and it's this interesting dichotomy between people trying to, you know, slim down their budgets, be really careful with their spending, but wanting to also really show the outcomes and actually change the trajectory of learning. So you have to sort of find that ROI, those tools that work, but that actually can be afforded.

And then of course, like you said, Google and OpenAI sort of distort the market by offering free tools, especially for AI tools. Fantastic. You are also doing a podcast. Do you wanna just talk a little bit about it? 

[01:13:32] Jacob Kantor: Still kind of in the hush hush, but after FETC, there'll be some big announcements with, uh, a really big co-host.

So I'm excited to get some kind of innovative districts to the table to discuss kind of the work that they're doing. Also excited to get their ed tech partners that they work with to accomplish that work. So we're really excited to showcase some movers and shakers in the space, but also give all the flowers to the tools that are working because I, you know, one thing I harp on over and over again is.

Sometimes we don't really share the great success that we're having and we should, right? And vice versa. Yes. Sometimes we don't share that tool that we thought was gonna be very successful that ended up underperforming. And what that leads to other districts, you know, orgs are definitely using those case studies as, Hey, we work with these districts and sometimes those tools are underperforming.

So I wanna make it okay to say, Hey, you know, we had this great idea to do this with this organization and we've had some hiccups and they were good partners and they came to bat and they helped us out. Or, Hey, you know what? We agreed to part ways and we weren't the perfect district for them. But I think we have to norm it that it's okay to talk about when solutions don't live up to what their marketing says.

Because that's the only way we really educate the market on what's working. Because if not, then we're all gonna, it's gonna be this esser thing all over again of solutions going into market just because they had some penetration. And then like kids not improving, kids, not using tools like all this thing over and over this cycle.

[01:15:20] Alex Sarlin: Yeah, it's a great point. And you know, I think those conversations happen in sort of hush hush or in text channels between procurement people and district leads. But, uh, getting a little bit more out of the open about what's working and what's not can share that information a lot faster. Jacob Kantor runs JK K12 EDU, and he is officially the chief dodo, the district office door opener, seasoned salesperson in the ed tech space, and somebody who has now become a master connector and a social media star.

It's been so great to talk to you, Jacob, and we'll see you in the new year. 

[01:15:53] Jacob Kantor: Hey, happy holidays to everyone listening, and if I can ever be of service, find me on LinkedIn. Be prepared though. You're gonna get flooded with like all of the ed tech news every single day, so just be forewarned. But thanks for having me and, uh, keep up the good work 

[01:16:09] Alex Sarlin: for our predictions episode.

We are here with Arman Jaffer. He's the founder and CEO of Brisk Teaching the classroom intelligence platform used by one in four US teachers. You heard that right? One in four very rapidly growing product. He worked in the White House office of the CTO and contributed to key education initiatives at the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative.

Arman was selected for Forbes 30 under 30, and is an Aspen fellow. Arman Jaffer. Welcome to EdTech Insiders. 

[01:16:40] Arman Jaffer: I'm so excited to be here. 

[01:16:42] Alex Sarlin: So let's look back at 2025. You know, you have had a enormous landmark year. What was the most significant shift in the AI and education landscape from your perspective at risk?

[01:16:55] Arman Jaffer: Yeah, absolutely. One of the interesting things in the 2024, 2025 academic year and kind of shifting until the end of the year in 25 is we really saw teachers really get their footing with respect to AI. And what that looked like is not just a productivity solution, but how can I actually introduce AI to my students?

And so, at least at Brisk, we offer both a teaching tool and a student facing tool called Boost. We saw a real shift from teachers that were used to just giving feedback on student work to saying, Hey, how can I provide a writing coach to my students so that they can actually stay in productive struggle, get the support when they need to, um, whilst they engage in, for example, writing an assignment or completing some other type of work.

And I think that has been a really exciting trend to see. One thing that we do think about, however, in 2025, is really seeing a lot of that usage be on an ad hoc basis, right? There's like pockets of brilliance and really districts that are doing it really well are figuring out how to find those pockets of brilliance of that teacher who was thinking about their curriculum and built out the specific module to engage students with a character chat or a podcast and being able to do it.

And so excited for what that holds in 2026. 

[01:18:09] Alex Sarlin: Yeah, that's a great point. You know, we talked a lot last year about how there was so much happening on the teacher side, but not that many in-school products that students were using. We, I haven't even thought about that in a while because as you say, it's become much more normalized for teachers to actually enable students to do interesting work with AI.

What is a bold prediction that you have for how AI will change teaching and learning next year in 2026? 

[01:18:32] Arman Jaffer: Absolutely, and I think that goes to what I was just referencing around the ad hoc use of AI. One thing that, as a developer of an AI solution, I think a lot about is how can you actually demonstrate outcomes from a tool like artificial intelligence?

What we're currently seeing in classrooms across the country is that there are some educators, some students that are way ahead in how they can actually leverage AI. There are the early adopters and then there's always the large amount of people who don't have time to frankly play around with the newest tool or try it.

And so really I think what we're gonna see in 2026 is a shift where we move from early adopter usage to true transformation because that's where outcomes happen, right? If you're a student, you have six periods of instruction. You're not necessarily, if you have one class that the teacher is an early adopter of AI but have five that don't, you're not really getting the benefit of the impact.

And so what I think about is honestly, the real moment for AI is being able to say, what is the opportunity cost of not using AI in the classroom? And I think for so long. MySpace. Our space hasn't really answered that question, and so we're really excited to see a shift from ad hoc use to systemic use of AI where a district can be able to think about, okay, we're going to reimagine our exit tickets using AI so students can get differentiated support as part of this process.

And then we can take that data and think about differentiation at that next stage, and we're gonna coach to it. That's a different shift that we haven't seen a lot of districts do. There have been some early adopter, thoughtful districts that we've partnered with that are going into that level, but we're excited in the same way that they're early districts that are thinking at the systems level.

How do we scale that to every district, every school in the country? And so we're really excited to be part of that shift. 

[01:20:16] Alex Sarlin: That's a fantastic, and yeah, that shift from sort of early adopters racing ahead, pockets of brilliance, as you said, to systemic use to sort of default in many situations, being like, well, AI can do this this way.

What is the cost of not using it? That shifting the, the sort of core underlying assumption, the default, it reminds me how you know, Andrew Eng always talks about AI as the new electricity. And when electricity first started, same kind of thing, it was first seen as a novelty. Some people tried it, they put an electric light in their house and they were so tickled.

But then it had to shift to systemic, widespread use. And whole systems had to be built around it for it to actually transform society. And I think that's AI moment is coming quickly maybe within the next year, as you say. What is one thing that educators, that EdTech companies like yourself and others, and policymakers should prepare for in 2026?

What do you think is coming that we should all see coming and not be caught Unawares. 

[01:21:13] Arman Jaffer: We're gonna stop talking about AI as we talk about it today. I think in some ways there is a hype cycle and we talk a lot about AI, but not, and it's like you're talking about the solution without talking about the problem, right?

And so I think what you're gonna see, and this is part of my prediction, but is that. The shift from focusing on the solution to focusing on the problems and you're gonna start to see a deepening of those solutions that are focused on specific problems. AI is a horizontal technology and so you, I think we're, I would really say for educators, school district leaders, policy makers, to stop.

We, we will likely stop seeing AI as an end in itself, but more as part of a solution to a problem that's been identified. If literacy scores are dropping and decreasing, how do we think about a robust solution and how is AI different support? AI supports part of that solution. And so my prediction is we're gonna stop talking about AI companies and we're gonna start talking about literacy companies and math companies.

And at Brisk, we actually have a very strong direction that we'll be announcing early in 2026. That is really the shift from exactly what I was talking about, that ad hoc usage to implementation with Fidelity and being able to address specific problems that a district kind of has, because we think that's really where the space is going, which is not thinking about Brisk as an AI tool.

There was a really intentional decision why we never actually incorporated AI into our name, which was that we actually don't think it's an end in itself, and the solution we wanna offer is something that's a little bit more tailored to the problems that we hear districts are, are experiencing. 

[01:22:46] Alex Sarlin: Very interesting.

Yeah, so the shift will be from AI as the sort of universal solution. Let's figure out where we can apply it to actually paying attention to the major problems in education and actually using AI as one of the tools in the toolkit. Rather than focusing on the AI, you focus on what's needed and how AI can help support a real meaningful transformational solution.

I'm excited to see what you launched in early 2026. I, I hope you come on at Tech Insiders to talk about it, because we'd love to hear that. Let's do that. 

[01:23:16] Arman Jaffer: I'm excited. 

[01:23:17] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. Oh, I would love to see it. Y you know, I, I know you launched sort of group grading this. I mean, you, you've launched a ton of things this year.

It's been really interesting and you've seen enormous growth. It's been really an exciting year. Just watching from the outside, seeing Brisk's growth has been spectacular to one in four US teachers that has nothing to sneeze at. Arman Jaffer is the founder and CEO of Brisk Teaching the classroom intelligence platform used by one in four US teachers.

Thanks so much for being here with us on our predictions episode at EdTech Insiders. 

[01:23:45] Arman Jaffer: Thanks. Happy holidays 

[01:23:46] Alex Sarlin: for our next prediction. Ian McCullough is a EdTech marketer with over 20 years of experience across consumer corporate training and institutional with companies like Leapfrog, Socratic Arts Pearson, and 3P Learning at Turnitin.

He built the dedicated marketing function 4K 12, and led it for five years. He holds a master's degree from Carnegie Mellon University and resides in the Bay Area. Ian McCullough, welcome EdTech Insiders. 

[01:24:15] Ian McCullough: Thank you for 

[01:24:15] Alex Sarlin: having me, Alex. Happy 

[01:24:16] Ian McCullough: to 

[01:24:16] Alex Sarlin: be here. Yeah. And you are also a very active member of the EdTech WhatsApp community.

Always have so many interesting things to say in there, so I'd love to hear what you're thinking about. Let's start with the past year. Looking back at 2025, what was the most significant shift or learning in the education space, including AI from your perspective? 

[01:24:39] Ian McCullough: I mean, I think on this one, what we're really seeing as we just had chat GPTs third birthday and public awareness on this one is that we're starting to figure out what the boundaries are.

And we can go back to the Gartner Hype cycle. And it seems more than any technology than I've ever seen, different factions are in different places on the heightened expectations, the trial of disillusionment and the slope of enlightenment. But I think most people within the education space are coming up the slope of enlightenment.

And the most provocative question that has come up for me over the past 12 months, it isn't the technology question. It's the philosophical and social questions of, in a world where it is getting easier and easier for anybody who wants to know something, to learn anything when they want, where they want, especially looking at kids and, and young people, what are schools for?

What are we expecting of these institutions that have charter that really require community involvement and mutual commitment? What are we doing here? And I think that might be a long overdue question in terms of, uh, post World War II stuff, but that's really on my mind and watching those questions about how do we distinguish.

Learning and education and schooling as really distinct concepts. It's some deep, deep, deep petty stuff. 

[01:26:16] Alex Sarlin: It really is. And, and do you feel like last year was the year where that sort of question became mainstream, where you sort of saw a lot of different people wrestling with this core purpose question in education?

Oh, 

[01:26:27] Ian McCullough: I don't even think it's mainstream yet. This is where I think it's just starting to bubble to the surface, but the fact that it is emerged and the que that it's being asked at all, it's really profoundly important. And because of what AI is and the human factors elements of it, where people attribute active intelligence a beingness to it, it is unlike anything that I've certainly seen in my 25 years of practice, 20 plus 25 years of practice now in the ed tech industry.

I look back in my early days at Leapfrog and really think about some of the products had the privilege of working with under the likes of Jim Mar GRA and the late Mike Wood and you know, a lot of the thoughts about scaffolding and adapting to where students were like we were building those into four megabyte eprom chips and certainly not large data centers, but the fluidity and the personalization that's now possible.

Suddenly when we look at these institutions that we've established with certain expectations, we really do have to question. What are the limits of the technology where we as ed tech practitioners and developers trying to make the world a better place based on our, our belief in this power and our own experiences as learners.

Seeing the limitations of that in mass and looking at what does a great teacher do and how important it is to have great teachers, and at the same time when institutions are making it and creating an experience and society and communities are making an experience so that great teachers don't want to be in the profession, right?

We still have young people to educate. Where is the balance in that, in terms of how AI can play a role in instruction of academic content while still giving kids the benefit of the experience of school, which is about more than academic content? 

[01:28:31] Alex Sarlin: Very well put. I, I, you know, one term in there that jumps out to me is the fluidity and personalization mm-hmm.

That suddenly pop with AI. And I think that fluidity metaphor really resonates with me because, you know, EdTech, historically, it's often been a little bit rigid, right? It's like the hints that pop up or the branching pathways or the, you know, the structures. How do you get everything to look and feel like a multiple choice question so that it can be graded.

And I think, you know, the fluidity of being able to, at any moment as a student, just be like, I don't know what's going on. And have something just respond to you or be like, this is cool. I, I'd love to learn more. And it just respond to you. We've just never had anything like that. 

[01:29:07] Ian McCullough: Well, we've never had anything like that.

And I think certainly in the circles that you and I run in, one does not stick around EdTech unless one genuinely loves learning. Right. Like, you know, we are learning junkies, we soak it in. And as someone who, I'll, I'll, I'll use the label auto didact. For me, I've got a Claude membership. I actively use Gemini and chat GPT to just round out and explore different answers and kind of have confirmation and then go back to primary sources in my use.

For me to be able to provide general instructions of here's what I need as a learner, this is what I want. I want citations six years at turn it in. Citations are important. Thank you very much. Take me back to the primary source. Help me synthesize and then let me read for myself. That is in my instructions to every large language model I use.

Similarly with diffusion models where, you know, if I wanna play around with an image before I go partner with a designer, I'm able to say, you know, describe how I work. But I've also been doing this a while and I know that which is incredibly empowering. 

[01:30:16] Alex Sarlin: And 

[01:30:17] Ian McCullough: yeah, I think a lot about, I mean, we want to talk about recently surfaced conversations.

The whole fact that I'd say that the 5% problem has become a common topic of debate within the EdTech community with a lot of different positions about it and like the why and where for. But we have to recognize that there is a real phenomenon here where there is a lot of unrealized potential. That is systemic.

That doesn't necessarily match what those of us who are voracious learners think it could be. But we still have to deal with the rest of the world as it is and work with human nature and the systems we have to make things better for everyone. And I mean, I think something that you've been really emphatic about is as we make content more accessible, the necessity of that human connection is clearer, I think, than it has been in a very, very long time.

And how that plays out, it's gonna be interesting in the year ahead and, and the years ahead to see where we land. 

[01:31:28] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. The transformational educational experience for most people is a person. Mm-hmm. It's very rarely a tool or a fact, or a book or a, so, you know, I think we, that's still gonna be true even in the age of AI, but for Autodidacts AI is something we've just the likes of, which we've never seen, and it may cause even more of these bifurcated distinction between the K shape in learning outcomes.

Well, let's talk about the future. Mm-hmm. So in 2026, what do you think is going to happen in this space? What's a bold prediction that you think for how AI make change teaching and learning in 2026? Or just the change of discussion around it? 

[01:32:04] Ian McCullough: Well, I think the discussion that we are seeing AI is gonna continue to evolve.

I think the big question that we're gonna see, where we're gonna see a lot of shakeout in terms of technology is what's the role of screens? Again, in the intech Insiders Group, there was an article that we posted just a day or two ago to really look at the science, the actual research and how people feel about screen-based technology now, powered by artificial intelligence and the effect on truth, the effect on young people's mental health and cognitive wellbeing.

Screens are receiving a lot of scrutiny, which is a really, really interesting shift after 30 years of connecting to the internet. Then smartphones, then social media. It feels like there's a ginormous pause as we take stock of where we're at, and there are some very passionate critics who are asking some serious questions.

And, you know, taking some hard lines on screens that I think that as these discussions temper out, we will find that balance point. But I think my bold prediction for at least of the year to come is that the scrutiny of screens is only gonna pick up pace. Something that I'm acutely aware of is that there was law just passed in Australia, in the state of Victoria to restrict in-school screen time to no more than 90 minutes a day.

Which again, that could, you know, in terms of actual practice, that could totally line up with what is actually happening. That seems, you know, if a, as a recommendation or just best practice. It could be entirely reasonable. I will defer to the scholars and the pedagogy experts on that one. I'm a marketer at the end of the day.

What stands out to me though is this is the first time that that sort of limit, at least as far as I, I'm aware, on school managed devices has ever been imposed. And that's gonna have a reaction in terms of how people engage with it. 

[01:34:14] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. I 

[01:34:15] Ian McCullough: frequently, in my career found Australia to be a leading indicator of what's gonna come.

Maybe it's the, the international dateline and then it works its way slowly around the work 

[01:34:24] Alex Sarlin: after a decade. It's a relatively small place so they can make decisions quickly when they have an idea. Yeah. Ian, we have to come back. I can tell we should have a full long hour about this because I, no question.

There's a lot to say here. I think this screen free prediction is really amazing. Unfortunately, these episodes we have to keep really short, so, but let's come back and do the long one because soon, because I think I'd love to dig into this screens the purpose of school. Everything you're saying really resonates with me.

[01:34:52] Ian McCullough: What I will say on this one is, again, a shameless plug for the community that Yeah, exactly. That you have been charted is I do have a piece that I've been working on for quite a few months where I'm gonna dig into some of this deeper rich with footnotes and they will find it first in a tech insiders.

[01:35:07] Alex Sarlin: There you go. There you go. Ian McCullough is an EdTech marketer with over 20 years of experience across consumer corporate training and institutional with Leapfrog Socratic Arts Pearson 3P and Turnitin, thank you so much for being here with us on EdTech Insiders. My pleasure. For our next prediction, we have a very special guest, Jennifer.

Carolan is co-founder and general partner at Reach Capital A $215 million Fund investing in Education Tech. A former classroom teacher in Chicago. She moved to Silicon Valley in the year 2000 and is supported Ed Tech Ventures at New Schools Venture Fund and co-founded the New School Seed Fund and of course Reach Capital and she teaches at Stanford University.

Jennifer Carolan, welcome to EdTech Insiders. 

[01:35:54] Jennifer Carolan: Thanks for having me, Alex. Glad to be here. 

[01:35:57] Alex Sarlin: I'm really happy to speak with you. You have such a broad perspective on the EdTech landscape from so many different pitch decks from portfolio companies, from conversations with people throughout the field. When you look back at 2025, what do you think is the main story in the EdTech space?

It can be AI related or just about EdTech in general from your particular perspective at Reach. 

[01:36:20] Jennifer Carolan: Yeah, so I've been in education as a teacher before I became an education investor, so I've been in the in this world for a long time and I think what surprised me about 2025 was just how rapidly Americans began shifting their perception of education, about thinking about education.

And the changes seem to have been slow for many years, but now they're definitely accelerating and I can share some of the stats that I'm tracking and that I'm most surprised by. But we'll start with post-secondary. So college, you might have seen the poll that came out recently that two-thirds of registered voters no longer think that a college education is worth the cost is worth it.

And that has hugely shift in the last 10 years from majority of Americans thinking that it was worth it to now only 33% thinking it's worth it. So that is an enormous shift and has all kinds of implications for our post-secondary system. Also, another would be, I think the fact that now I don't think this is being talked about enough.

I know Scott Galloway is talking about a lot, but 62% of college students are women now. I mean, this is stunning statistic. So that's a major change. Amazing. Yeah. And then on the K 12 front, these are probably well known and understood, but just to reiterate, some of the stats there that I think are pretty shocking, that the chronic absenteeism that a quarter of students that are attending school are chronically absent from school, meaning they're missing 10% of of school days.

We just saw the data came out just a few days ago on homeschooling. Homeschooling is now triple the rate. It was pre pandemic. Wow. And so we have this kind of layer cake, like some of these changes were happening before the pandemic, then the pandemic accelerated them, and now we have AI and weakening institutions.

So all of these are coming together to really accelerate and create major disruptions in our education system. And I'll just throw in the ESA too, the major shift of public dollars into the hands of families. And how fast and rapidly that is happening. And people are saying they're going to private schools, they're going, yes.

Many of them are going to private schools, which are, have increased in enrollment significantly. But I was looking at the John Hopkins data more closely. And the most frequent use of that private school ESA payment is to small schools under 30 students. So these are essentially micro schools that are about 5,000 I tuition.

Wow. So it's just fascinating the way those numbers are shifting and how quickly that's happening too. 

[01:39:08] Alex Sarlin: Yeah, I, I think we're sort of seeing a wide scale loss of faith in, in educational institutions, which is I've, I've never seen it before either. We were just looking at exactly those numbers, the post-secondary numbers.

And they're also split by party enormously. Yeah. Three out of four registered Republicans do not believe that a four year college is worth a three out of four. I mean, that is an extremely high number, even more than the two thirds, than two thirds of all registered voters. It's unbelievable. I've never seen anything like it.

And I think, as you say, it's been building for a long time, but it seems to have really peaked in the last few years and it creates this incredible uncertainty. So what do you think is gonna happen next? What is a prediction you have for how the landscape will change in the next year? Maybe building on some of these feelings.

[01:39:49] Jennifer Carolan: Well, it's, it's always hard to, to crystal ball and think what will actually happen over the next 12 months. But I do think that you're gonna see an increase in these trends for sure. And also I think that the party divide is super interesting that you point out Alex. Yeah. But I also think that it's happening, although we're not seeing significant numbers is happening in all demographics actually.

It's, it's so, you know, we talk about, I remember when Peter Teal came out, I think that was like a decade ago or more, that he came out the Teal Founders Fund concept. And it was so outrageous. Right. And it was such an outlier thought. And yet I think that too is happening in all demographics, not just a, a Silicon Valley thing.

Although I live in Silicon Valley, I have three children and two of 'em, and they follow, like I, my, my daughter went to college, my son started a company and decided not to go to college. And it's interesting to see those trends play out too, in, in my own family. But as far as like what's happening the next year, next year, I think AI, we haven't talked that much about AI, but I think it is disrupting the classroom for sure.

And one of the changes that we're tracking pretty closely and I think is really interesting is how it's changing the assessment market. So assessments have traditionally been about content knowledge and what, you know, and I think that the assessments we're starting to see in other countries are changing more into oral exams and more dynamic and what can you do with that knowledge?

And you are given information, knowledge now. What do you do with it and how do you demonstrate your critical thinking? It's happening in Singapore now. And I, I think that's a really interesting trend and I think that's, that's also gonna come into the US more so in 2026. 

[01:41:31] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. That application, you know, it's a, it is basically assessment of whether you can apply knowledge rather than retrieve knowledge, which is, it's a higher order function, it's a deeper learning to be able to apply knowledge rather than retrieve it.

So hopefully that is actually exactly a positive, positive step in the, in the assessment space. It's really interesting to see how that's gonna change. And I think you're, you're just, I didn't respond to your point about the micro schools, but that is an incredibly exciting, I think, opportunity for the ed tech space.

I mean, these schools that are under 30 students, there are $5,000 a year that are growing that have been, you know, at this enormous rate around the country. That is a very different type of market than traditional public schools. Very different. Yes. And if it continues to grow and becomes meaningfully sized, that is just a totally different approach.

I have started to see EdTech companies that are targeting the homeschool market much more, more companies that are targeting that as their beachhead market, which is just a totally different way of seeing the world, you know? 

[01:42:22] Jennifer Carolan: Yeah, totally. Yeah, we have, we have several investments in that space and so I've, I've looked at it pretty deeply and it's fascinating.

It's changed a lot, the homeschooling market over the last 10, 15, 20 years. And it's also being fueled by the increase of diagnoses and learning differences and the desire for more personalized learning and just the ch, a lot of times, schools and the school environments reflect changes in our society and just this more flexible work.

Remote work, I think is also a factor in families decisions to opt out of the traditional school system into something that is more a la carte and more flexible for their family and more tailored to the needs of their child. That's really happening and the dollars now fueling that and the way that that's being delivered.

You know, I looked at a lot of the data coming out of Arizona, ESA dollars, and a lot of that money is going to tutoring for learning differences, tutoring for specialized learning needs. And I think that as it becomes a lot easier to deploy and use those dollars like similar to like an HSA account, it'll be really interesting to see how rapidly the other states begin to turn and how that changes.

Because I think the whole concept of school choice, this is the latest iteration of school choice, but it's a really hard case now to make if your child is being bullied or suffering in, in a school environment that's failing, like it's super challenging to say that that child should, you know, that we should not give children alternatives and choices in their education.

So it's a very interesting time that's now being made. The friction is being reduced by these dollars and new technologies, allowing it to be a more easily accessible. 

[01:44:15] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. And shortages in special education staffing, which has been Oh, huge. Persistent. A long time. Yeah. So if you, it's hard to just, I like the way you're putting that, it's sort of hard to rationalize and justify why a student who is having trouble getting the services or the support they need in a, in a public school should stay in that public school.

Because as there are more meaningful alternatives that are just all around you and that are gonna increasingly be marketing to you, it, you know, it feels like, oh, okay, it's not the default, the same way it was for decades, for many, many, for a century in this country. It's a fascinating moment. Yeah. What is one trend, I think you've already named many, but what is one trend that you feel like educators, EdTech companies or policymakers should prepare for in 2026?

What's sort of a underlying sort of zeitgeist shift that you think is starting to emerge and that we should all be ready for? We already talked about choice as a big one, but I'm curious what else. 

[01:45:08] Jennifer Carolan: Yeah. Okay. So I teach a class in the spring at Stanford Lean Launchpad on startup methodology with Steve Blank and Steve Weinstein.

And we just had our meeting last week about what do we wanna change in our class? And I think this is an interesting little microcosm of of some of the changes. And one of the things that we decided was you need to apply to the class and we encourage the use of AI for the material. They have to create a business model canvas and present their case for the sort of team and startup idea that they're going after.

So instead of having them present their business canvas, we're asking them to share multiple business canvases and which one they chose and why, and the iterations. Mm-hmm. So I think another example of what are you doing with the knowledge that AI is helping you present? And then the other idea that we have, we haven't firmly decided on this yet, but.

On the other end of the spectrum here is the loss of community. That tech has been eroding community for decades now. And, and there's a lot of different reasons for that, but that we won't go into now. But it's making it more challenging to connect in authentic ways and for us to have these experiences around community, it's further isolating and we know all the data around that.

So the classroom is such an important community and many people write about this very eloquently and and I think that it is a very, teachers know it's a very special place. And it's a very unique place. And as institutions kind of melt away, there's fewer and fewer of these opportunities for people from diverse backgrounds and experiences to connect in very authentic ways.

So we are considering in the classroom itself when we're, we're connecting in discussing ideas to have laptops away or phones away completely and not allow, you know, even note taking and, and things like that in the classroom so that we can optimize our ability to create this very magical school community while we are all together.

Now we encourage, we love the use of AI and we will do that in the classroom in, in so many different ways. But there is a time for that. And then there's a time for creating very authentic and special community. And I think one of the things that is there's going to be an increased emphasis, kind of like what you were saying about your last guess.

We're kind of over rotating in some ways, saying, oh, let's ban everything. No more AI, no more tech. No. We need to get more nuanced about when are the right times to use technology and when are the times not to, and to realize that it's an incredible attention tool. And so put the laptops away and really focus on the human connection period.

And so I think one of the shifts is schools, teachers, parents, you're already seeing this, you know, getting more sort of, I don't wanna say serious, but it's like we're elevating our desire for this connection and realizing that schools are an a very important place for that. And making sure that we have the guardrails in place to create that type of community that I think that we all want.

[01:48:17] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. Amazing point. They're an important place. And one of not that many places left in our Exactly. I mean, workplace is, we're all behind screens for most of the day in our, in our workplace as well. So there's just not that many opportunities. And I feel like the two trends that you're naming in developing this class are also, you know, writ large.

Yeah. Things we're starting to see. Right. That idea of the phone bands putting, you know, screen free. Just thinking more about connection, about using the time when we're together to be together rather than mediaing. Yeah. Technology. And then that idea of when AI is part of assessment, you can raise the bar, right?

Yeah. Instead of one business canvas for, tell us why you did it. Tell us how you, show us how you did it. Sh the process is, the product is something we talk about, right? So it's like, yeah, us, how you came up with the canvas is why you chose, you're asking for a lot more work because you know, they have accelerated capabilities with AI and I think that is something we're starting to see.

Yes. You know? Yes. Board. Yes. That's what we want to see. I think we're starting to see it with early adopters and adopt. I'm hoping it will be more mainstream this year. But that's a really interesting microcosm, as you said, of the way education is moving and also the difference between being like when you're outta school, use AI for all sorts of things.

Accelerate, be super productive. Be and then when you're here, be human. Be connected. Yes. Talk. It feels like, I think I, we're gonna see a lot more of that pattern in schools. Can I add one 

[01:49:38] Jennifer Carolan: more? This is like a wish. It's, I don't, I'm concerned that it's not gonna be a trend, but I, it's a, it's a wish, I guess.

Yeah. I think a lot about young people's situation now and them going out into this job market, a lot of 'em in debt, and they've worked so hard, and I really do wish that workplaces, corporations, the business world, would open their doors to young people more readily and create thoughtful internship programs.

Allow them to be mentored to work in their offices. I have found that young people, despite the narrative out there, they like desperately want to be in the office and they want to learn and they want to be around people. And I have interviewed now many people that have said, I'm looking for in-office work only.

Hmm. I don't wanna be working at home. And I think that that speaks to this desire for that generation, which has gone through COVID in schools and, and like, they really are hungry for that mentorship and that support about how to learn and grow in their careers. And I hear so many businesses, oh, it's a pain.

It doesn't have a good ROI or whatever. And I think that's so shortsighted. I mean, if you're building your brand and you, and also the young people that have a different perspective on so many different things, that's valuable. So that would be like, my wish is that policymakers and businesses, even if you are only five people say, Hey, we're gonna bring on an intern this summer.

Mm-hmm. And we're gonna teach, we're gonna do our part to support this next generation. That would be my hope too. 

[01:51:14] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. And that, that could bridge some of the missing entry level jobs, right? Yeah. To have people be, at least have visibility into what workplaces look like and be able to skill up, because they're not there as receptionists anymore.

They're not gonna be there as data entry anymore. You know, a lot of those opportunities aren't gonna be there and that's where that would've happened. It's, it's exactly's a great point. Fascinating conversation. Truly Jennifer Carolan is co-founder and general partner at Reach Capital A $215 million Fund investing in education technology.

Thank you so much. Always appreciate chatting with you. Alex, Alex Insiders. 

[01:51:51] Jennifer Carolan: Thank you so much for having me. I can't wait to hear all the other predictions too. 

[01:51:57] Alex Sarlin: For our next prediction, we are here with Andrew Goldman. Uh, Andrew joined HMH Houghton Mifflin Harcourt in 2024 after HMH acquired Writeable, where he was co-founder and CEO.

He now serves as EVP Executive Vice President of HMH Labs leading innovative product development. Previously, he founded Subtext, which was acquired by Renaissance and Pandemic Studios, which was acquired by Electronic Arts healed degrees from Brown and NYU, and was a US Olympic sailor in 1988. I did not know that.

That's amazing. Andrew Goldman, welcome to adtech Insiders. 

[01:52:33] Andrew Goldman: Thank you, Alex. It's great to be here again with you. I always love talking with you. It's so fun. 

[01:52:39] Alex Sarlin: Oh yeah. I love talking with you too. I did not know you were an Olympic athlete. That is incredible. Yeah. Well, so you've had such a storied and varied career in gaming and obviously in ed tech in software.

I'd love to hear your basically first year reflection in 2025. What do you feel like was the vibe in the EdTech space, and then specifically what do you think changed in relationship to learning 

[01:53:02] Andrew Goldman: with ai? So, you know, I've been at this for a long time. Like you said, I've been through the game industry, seen a lot of transitions there through ed tech.

And what I would say is just remarkable about 25 is the pace of adoption and comfort with AI. So every year, HMH does this educator confidence report, and this year it's just astonishing. We're seeing six x the number of educators that are using AI compared to 2023, 3 and four educators say they understand how to use it, and nearly four and five feel confident using AI in their classroom.

So adoption and implementation, that has always been the challenge with EdTech. And in this year and, and in the last year, it's a, it, it's an ongoing trend. We are seeing just incredible pace of adoption by individuals, you know, the humans that are using this. 

[01:54:09] Alex Sarlin: Uh, and I mean, we're only two or three years in, we're three years into this generative AI world, and I it seeing, you know, three outta four, these very large majorities of teachers starting to use it and feel comfortable.

Yeah. It's very rare to see a technology be adopted that widely, that quickly. I think it's a really, really great point. Yes. And what do you think is coming next? You know, if we look to 2026, what is a bold prediction you have for how things are gonna change in the next year? 

[01:54:35] Andrew Goldman: Well, it's, I, I would call my prediction both bold and hopeful.

[01:54:40] Alex Sarlin: Mm-hmm. 

[01:54:40] Andrew Goldman: That the focus on AI will shift from outputs to outcomes to supporting outcomes. And we are seeing this adoption is happening so quickly because AI is incredibly helpful and it solves a lot of point needs for educators that are just overstretched in so many different dimensions. But there hasn't been as deep of a focus on how this is really going to support outcomes.

And I think in 26, when you look at how the models and the technology has changed. The context windows that the AI can operate on. So the data that you can put in there is so much larger. When we started doing this years ago, everything was about managing the context windows. So we could provide feedback on writing, but we couldn't include the reading that it was in response to because we couldn't fit all that in.

We now are putting just huge amounts of context into the AI, and when we sold writeable to HMH, the reason really was because we saw all of the opportunity in bringing that context into the AI. So I look at it as there's the art, the science, and the application of instruction and teaching. And so much of what we focused on in 25 is the application of AI.

And this enhanced context window is going to allow us to really bring forward. The art and the science of this. So the art, how do I connect to my students? How do I adapt high quality materials to really fit with my students? And then the science, we now have the full learning science from, you know, that has really been built by NWEA to provide a backbone that is sequencing.

What we're doing. So I think that that's, we're going to see art science and application come together in AI in 26. 

[01:57:11] Alex Sarlin: Yeah. And I, I think one really particular differential advantage for HMH is that they have the NWA and and the MAP test. Not only is the learning science baked in there, but the assessment.

Yes. One of the main ways in which schools measure outcomes and changes in learning outcomes is within the family. I think that's a really positive and and exciting vision for taking AI from a tool that's just making things more efficient, making things smoother, reducing workload to something that actually is gonna have noticeable quantifiable effect.

That's a powerful, 

[01:57:44] Andrew Goldman: and when you look at it, you mentioned NWEA, but we also have the curriculum. We know the continuity of high quality instruction. We know what the students did yesterday. We know where they're going tomorrow. And then we have these layers of data from the assessment that's coming from both the program, but also really bookmarked by the NWA assessments.

And it's a huge advantage. So when readings come in from the program, we have the NWEA profile of that class, and we're bringing the science of how are you going to instruct the next bit of reading instruction in there and applying it specifically to the classroom. It's incredibly. Exciting. Yeah. And I feel like I'm working eight days a week right now just because there's so much exciting opportunity in in front of us.

[01:58:40] Alex Sarlin: There's so much potential. And then I, I think your, your point about the growth of the context window I think is really key as well. Yeah. Something I, it just doesn't go stated enough that this is a huge opening for AI for learning is the expansion of the content window. I, so let me ask you the final question here, which is the context window and the continued growth is I think one really interesting trend.

What's another trend that you think is coming in the next year that educators, companies at tech companies and policy makers should look out for when it comes to the changes that we can expect to see in this space? 

[01:59:12] Andrew Goldman: Well, I think this expansion of the context window and the opportunity, like I said, to get the art and science 

[01:59:19] Alex Sarlin: Yeah.

[01:59:20] Andrew Goldman: Into this is going to change the dialogue a little bit. If you look at how AI is coming into districts, a lot of it is being driven by the technology side of the house. And, you know, one of the things that, and that, that's been amazing. They've done a remarkable job of getting the level of adoption and it's paving the way.

But AI is really, you know, when I use AI, I feel like it's really smart about something I don't know a lot about and not so smart when it's talking about things that I know a lot about. Right? And what's going to change as we bring this art and science in is the people around the table that are going to need to collaborate to push us to the next level.

[02:00:16] Alex Sarlin: Hmm. 

[02:00:17] Andrew Goldman: So I think we're gonna see a lot more discussions that are bringing the assessment teams, the curriculum teams, and the technology teams into the room together, and the educators teams that can have that interdisciplinary conversation where they can bring together all the different interests are going to realize far greater wins than anybody else out there, than any of them working independently.

[02:00:51] Alex Sarlin: That's really interesting. They bringing together interdisciplinary teams, technology assessment, curriculum educator, frontline educators into the same room to understand how to create products that can truly move the needle for students. It is a really exciting, it is a hopeful vision. I think it's possible.

I think it's possible. 

[02:01:09] Andrew Goldman: Absolutely. It is so possible right now and it that's what makes this, you know, I've told you this before, the golden age of Ed Tech is that we are going to be able to bring together, and like I said, we've gotta shift the thinking of AI from output to outcomes and getting to the student outcomes.

And it's going to take those different groups collaborating to elevate what the AI is producing. 

[02:01:36] Alex Sarlin: Fascinating. Andrew Goldman is the EVP of HMH Labs leading innovative product development across the Houghton Mifflin Harcourt ecosystem. Thank you so much for being here with us on our predictions episode of EdTech Insiders.

[02:01:51] Andrew Goldman: Thank you, Alex. I look forward to seeing everyone's predictions.

[02:01:54] Alex Sarlin: Thanks for listening to this episode of EdTech Insiders. If you like the podcast, remember to rate it and share it with others in the EdTech community. For those who want even more, EdTech Insider, subscribe to the free EdTech Insiders Newsletter on substack.

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